Global freight networks are highly sensitive to geopolitical instability. When conflict escalates in regions that sit along major aviation and maritime corridors, disruptions can quickly ripple through international transport networks.
Recent escalation in the Middle East is already affecting both shipping and aviation routes. Keep reading to learn how these disruptions are impacting global supply chains and causing issues like longer transit times, reduced freight capacity and rising transport costs.
Why the Middle East is critical to global freight
The Middle East sits at the intersection of several of the world’s most important trade corridors.
Key shipping lanes pass through the region, connecting the Persian Gulf to global markets. One of the most significant is the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway that serves as a major corridor for global energy and maritime trade (ABC News). The Red Sea and Suez Canal corridor is another critical route linking Asia and Europe.
The region is also home to major international airports including Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi, which act as key transit points for passengers and cargo flights (ABC News).
These routes support a significant share of global air cargo and maritime trade, making stability in the Middle East important for international freight movements.
Air freight disruption
Air freight networks have already been affected by airspace restrictions across the Middle East. Several countries, including Iran, Iraq and Israel, have restricted or closed their airspace as the conflict escalates (ABC News).
Additionally, airlines have been forced to cancel flights and reroute aircraft around the conflict zone (ABC News). International airports including Dubai, Doha and Abu Dhabi have also experienced disruptions. Closures grounded passenger and freight flights, many of which were carrying perishable cargo (ABC News).
For air freight, these changes can reduce available cargo capacity and make schedules less predictable. Longer flight paths may also increase operating costs for carriers and extend transit times for time-sensitive shipments.
Sea freight disruption
Rising tensions are creating uncertainty for vessels transiting the Middle East’s major shipping corridors. In recent weeks, commercial ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz have been targeted in attacks, raising safety concerns for carriers operating in the area (ABC News).
These incidents can affect how shipping companies operate. Some vessels may delay entering higher-risk corridors, while others adjust schedules or reroute where possible.
Such operational changes can place pressure on global container schedules and shipping networks.
Equipment imbalances and port congestion
Disruptions in the Middle East are already affecting the movement of containers across global shipping networks.
Vessels that are delayed or unable to enter parts of the Middle East are holding large volumes of containers onboard, preventing equipment from returning to circulation. This is contributing to equipment shortages in other regions and increasing port congestion as carriers adjust routes and schedules.
These conditions can take time to unwind and may continue to impact global shipping networks even as the situation stabilises.
Rising freight costs
Conflict in key transport corridors can quickly translate into higher freight costs across global supply chains.
Fuel price volatility
The Middle East carries a significant share of the world’s energy supply. “Around 20% of the world’s oil production and roughly a quarter of global liquefied natural gas exports move through the Strait of Hormuz”, meaning shipping disruptions in the area can quickly push energy prices higher (ABC News).
War-risk insurance
Security risks at sea can drive up war-risk insurance premiums for vessels transiting affected waterways. Insurance costs for ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz have already increased, leaving some tankers ‘sitting outside the strait’ (ABC News).
Emergency conflict surcharges
Periods of instability can lead carriers to introduce Emergency Conflict Surcharges to recover rising operating costs.
Some shipping lines have already implemented these charges. For example, shipping giant CMA CGM introduced an Emergency Conflict Surcharge effective from March 2, applying to cargo moving to and from countries across the Gulf region. It ‘ranges from US$2,000 for a 20-foot container to US$4,000 for refrigerated and specialised equipment’ (Channel News).
Carriers may introduce temporary surcharges like these to offset rising insurance, fuel and security costs during periods of instability.
Longer routes
Restricted airspace and higher-risk maritime corridors can force airlines and vessels to adjust routes (ABC News). Longer journeys increase fuel use and operating costs.
Even shipments not travelling through the Middle East can be affected. When vessels or aircraft are rerouted, capacity can tighten across global freight networks, placing upward pressure on rates across multiple trade lanes.
When key aviation routes and maritime corridors are disrupted, importers and exports are impacted. The Middle East conflict is expected to cause further instability across air and sea freight, and spike transport costs.
As the situation continues to evolve, supply chain planning and early communication with logistics partners will remain critical to managing disruption. Please reach out to [email protected] for more information on how your supply chain may be affected.